Perkins: Why?

Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins withdrawal from the 2006 governor’s race was a surprise, given that it happened the day before he’d scheduled a news conference to announce he was running for the job. While we at Various Things & Stuff were undecided earlier, we’d pretty much bought into the idea that Perkins would mount a campaign for the state’s highest office.

There’s no doubt — based on the timing and other factors — that this was one of the hardest decisions Perkins has ever had to make. And even one of his opponents — state Sen. Dina Titus, who Perkins told of his decision this morning — is giving him credit for the way in which he made it.

But why did he do it? It seems clear that Perkins finally realized what polls have been showing for months: He had an uphill climb, at best. And by “uphill,” we mean Mt. Everest-style uphill. At worst, he realized nobody in Nevada knew who he was, and the first $1 million to $2 million he raised would have to go to introducing himself to voters.

Would he have been able to raise the money? Probably, given that his advisors included R&R Partners gurus Billy Vassiliadis and Pete Ernaut, two veteran players in Nevada politics. (More on them in a second.) Although Perkins would not have had an office to fall back upon should he have run and lost, he could still have positioned himself as the perfect comprise between Titus, who some see as too liberal, and Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson, who Democrats see as too conservative.

The conventional wisdom has several lines on this particular horse race, most of which went along this train of thought: With Perkins in the race, Titus’ chances were better, since he and Gibson would have split the conservative Democrat vote, and left her with the more liberal activists. Now, with Perkins out, and Titus facing a yet-to-declare-formally Gibson, the lines are bilateral. There’s some legitimacy to that.

But we also think there’s legitimacy to this: In a Democratic primary, where party activists come out to play, Titus must still be considered the favorite. Gibson, an attorney, just won’t appeal to the activist wing of the party, even if he does appeal to the triangulating, Democratic Leadership Council wing. And let’s not forget Gibson’s baggage: Helping out Nevada Power and the Las Vegas Monorail, not exactly two popular entities in Las Vegas.

And what about the U.S. Sen. Harry Reid factor? Reid, who like Gibson is Mormon, is said to like the Henderson mayor for the state’s top job, something that may come into play in fund-raising, although Reid will undoubtedly stay neutral publicly.

Perkins’ departure changes the consultant dynamics, too. Where do folk like Vassiliadis and Ernaut go now? They can’t join U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons, the Republican front-runner, since Gibbons is already represented by Republican guru Sig Rogich. (Not to mention the fact that Perkins reportedly took a swipe at Gibbons during his bowing-out event today.) They can’t join state Sen. Bob Beers, who is running on the Tax Purity Platform, and Beers probably won’t win the primary. Ditto for Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt.

Does that mean they hook up with Gibson? And does said hooking up constitute what my friend and colleague Jon Ralston would characterize as an anointment? One thing is sure: Consultants sure like having a friend in the governor’s mansion, as that tends to make getting legislation passed much easier, and thus potential clients are easy catches.

Titus, for her part, weighs the scenarios calmly, saying she’s ahead of Gibson in terms of staff, and about even in terms of money. She’s better known by far, according to polls, and thus has a better base upon which to begin building positive name ID. And she dismisses talk that legions of fellow Mormons would change parties to become Democrats in order to vote for Gibson. (We agree; we think those Mormons would prefer that Gibson change parties to become a Republican. His philosophy isn’t that far removed from the GOP anyway.)

Gibson will try to sell his candidacy to Democrats by saying he’s got a better chance to beat Gibbons overall, especially in the rurals. The polls don’t show that, at least not yet, so look for him to do some research soon (his campaign, according to Ralston’s FLASH, just picked up Fred Yang of the prestigious firm Garin-Hart-Yang).

But, if Perkins departure proved anything, it’s that you can never tell whether someone will get in or out of a race, even at the last minute. Until Gibson actually announces he’s running, we can still dream of an uncontested Democratic primary, can’t we?