Two years and six days ago, U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons told the Review-Journal’s Tony Batt that he wouldn’t run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Harry Reid. The long-awaited news, later repeated at a Gibbons news conference at the Thomas & Mack, gave Reid an untroubled re-election and even gave rise to conspiracy theories that Reid and Gibbons had struck a deal: Gibbons, surely a strong Republican challenger, would bow out, and Reid would help him in some unspecified ways in the future. (Later, when Reid endorsed Gibbons’ “Education First” initiative, those theories resurfaced.)

But that was then, and this is now, and Gibbons is poised to make another announcement. Starting at the East Las Vegas Community Center at 10 a.m. today, and then later in rural parts of Nevada, Gibbons will announce he’s running for governor. And, to the dismay of many, he’s the automatic front-runner.

On paper, Gibbons makes a fine Republican candidate: He’s a decorated Air Force veteran of Vietnam and the first Persian Gulf War. He’s educated, holding degrees in science and law. He’s a former airline pilot, a former assemblyman and currently the state’s senior congressman. And he’s already run for governor once, against Bob Miller in 1994, so he knows about the pitfalls of campaigning and can avoid them in the future. And he’s the father of the popular tax-restraint initiative that requires a two-thirds vote in both houses of the Legislature in order to raise taxes.

But there’s a downside. Gibbons is conservative, undoubtedly more conservative than the growing population base in Democrat-dominated Clark County. He’s given to rash statements that play well at Young Americans for Freedom meetings, but poorly on national television. He can be assaulted as a crackpot, a master of the one-minute speech, delivered to an empty House chamber with only the C-SPAN cameras running. And he’s disliked by even fellow Republicans, who failed to give him several key committee assignments on Capitol Hill. (He clearly wanted to be chairman of the House Intelligence Committee rather than run for Nevada governor.) One fellow Republican, Gov. Kenny Guinn, has been trying to recruit somebody else to run for the spot, despite the fact that Guinn is chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association. (One big exception to the hate: Republican consultant Sig Rogich, who is supporting Gibbons and can be very helpful and persuasive, both with strategic advice and fund-raising.)

But his primary victory seems all but certain. Consider: His opponents, thus far, are Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt and state Sen. Bob Beers. Neither has Gibbons name recognition, and Gibbons’ stellar performance in the northern part of the state. (Gibbons beat out even President George W. Bush in 2004 balloting in all but two Nevada counties, Eureka and Esmeralda. He scored almost 80 percent in Elko County, 78 percent in Humboldt, 80 in Lander, 76 in Pershing, 77 in Churchill and … well, you get the idea.) He even racked up 56 percent in the portion of Clark County that falls within his 2nd Congressional District.

Bear in mind, of course, that those numbers reflect two important things. One, Bush was running against U.S. Sen. John Kerry for president in 2004, which brought a record number of people to the polls (1.07 million in Nevada, or 77.59 percent of all registered voters). In 2006, Gibbons’ race will be at the top of the ticket, and he’s simply not the draw that Bush v. Kerry was. Second, Gibbons’ opponent, one Angie Cochran, was the most low-profile candidate to challenge the congressman in years. The numbers could change with smart and charismatic candidates in a primary.

But Gibbons is better known, polls show, than either Hunt or Beers. (Hunt, in fact, has been mostly forgotten by pundits.) And Gibbons and Beers are seemingly of one mind when it comes to fiscal policy, which makes us wonder why Beers even decided to enter the race. Although it’s a long way until Aug. 15, 2006 (primary election day), Gibbons is the smart money here.

That is, if he can avoid the gaffes that have plagued him in this race so far, gaffes that will only be made worse with the big, bright spotlight of the media focused on him. Giving a plagiarized speech in which he calls for war protesters to be used as human shields in Iraq, for example, might be unwise. Denouncing liberals as tree-hugging, Birkenstock-wearing, tie-died musicians might not play well, either, since Gibbons has one of the lowest ratings from the League of Conservation Voters (0 percent for 2004, baby). And suggesting that members of a luncheon audience might drift off into sexual fantasies about him during a long speech, well, that’s just creepy.

Democrats are already on the warpath, having field billboards with an awful, German-tourist style photo of Gibbons and the human shields remark in both north and south. They followed up his scheduling of today’s announcement with a news release announcing Gibbons’ “second chance” tour, repeating his quote about wanting to be Intelligence chairman. And they’ve helpfully provided reporters with the “Top five questions that Jim Gibbons won’t answer” just in time for today’s news conference. Among them: Why did Gibbons get an “F” grade from the National Education Association? (Answer: Because teacher’s unions hate him because he doesn’t want to raise teacher pay to the levels the unions want!)

At least we know there won’t be any bored reporters for the next 15 months. On to the announcement!